Padres come from ahead to lose another series as damning evidence continues to mount

PHOENIX — Rich Hill did not deviate far from his San Diego Padres debut in his second outing since the trade deadline. The recently acquired lefty, having supplied a season-low three innings Aug. 6, was pulled after 3 1/3 innings Saturday at Chase Field. Afterward, for the second time in just under a week, Hill did not mince words.

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“When you suck, you suck,” he said.

Nor did Hill take any solace in going from surrendering six runs the prior weekend to yielding half as many runs in another brief appearance.

“You can go out there and give up one run in the ninth and lose the ballgame; you pitched really well, but you still lost the game,” Hill said. “So, you have to take full responsibility for it, either which way it is. … It was a terrible outing.”

And it was commendable, apparently characteristic candor from a 43-year-old who has pitched in two World Series, a stage that currently feels far, far away for his 13th big-league club.

The Padres came from ahead to lose Sunday’s rubber game, 5-4, against an Arizona Diamondbacks team that entered the series on an eight-game losing streak. For San Diego, it was all so familiar.

The offense scored three first-inning runs off a rookie starter with an elevated ERA, then failed to do any more damage across Brandon Pfaadt’s final 4 2/3 innings. The bullpen blew a lead that should have been bigger when Nick Martinez, one of its few relatively reliable relievers, served up a two-run homer in the seventh. Robert Suarez, the $46 million setup man, let in the go-ahead run in the eighth. The Padres failed to produce a hit in the final two innings as they dropped to 6-19 in one-run games, 56-62 overall and 5 1/2 games back of the National League’s final wild-card spot.

“We’ve had some tough losses this year,” manager Bob Melvin said, “but this is probably as tough a loss as we’ve had based on where we are, who we’re playing and what every game means right now.”

The Padres can talk all they want about run differential, bad luck and ill-timed injuries, but the evidence has become overwhelming: In the category that matters most — finding a way to win — they are frequently outplayed. No matter how this ends, it will go down as an alarming season for a $255 million mishmash of talent.

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It hasn’t ended yet, of course. FanGraphs gives San Diego, after a 1-4 road trip, a 22.5 percent chance of eking into the playoffs. It’s mid-August, and no other would-be contender has truly separated itself.

“We haven’t been playing (how) we’re capable of playing,” said third baseman Manny Machado, who had called Sunday’s series finale “do-or-die.” “I’m gonna keep repeating that as much as we can, because it’s the truth. There’s no hiding that. But as bad as we’ve been playing, we’re still in the hunt. … We just got to keep fighting every single day.”

Fair enough. But to give general manager A.J. Preller merely his second winning season in eight full seasons, the Padres would have to do no worse than 26-18. To finish with 85 wins — the recorded low for a postseason team in the wild-card era — they would have to go 29-15. Given all the evidence to this point, a roughly one-in-five shot at October feels optimistic.

Here are a few more observations from the weekend:

After fracturing his left big toe in spring training, Joe Musgrove spent two hours each morning lying inside a hyperbaric chamber. Attempting to aid the recovery of an injured shoulder, Musgrove has returned to daily use of hyperbaric chambers near wherever the Padres are playing. This past week, he received hyperbaric oxygen therapy in San Diego, Seattle and Phoenix.

An MRI taken early this month revealed inflammation in Musgrove’s right shoulder capsule, prompting the pitcher to seek multiple second opinions and ultimately agree to a three-week shutdown. Musgrove said Sunday he was starting to feel better, but the Padres will not know more about his potential ability to return this season until he resumes throwing in late August.

Musgrove is clearly determined to try. Despite being on the injured list, he traveled with the team on its just-completed road trip and has adhered to an intensive conditioning regimen. And although the pressurized environment of a hyperbaric chamber might have contributed to the elbow bursitis he pitched through in recent months, Musgrove said there was no proven connection.

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A best-case scenario could see Musgrove come off the IL by mid-September. The wisdom in doing so would largely depend on the Padres’ place in the standings. Musgrove’s rehabilitation and follow-up imaging will be even bigger factors. This is the 30-year-old’s third career IL trip brought on by a shoulder injury.

It hasn’t nearly reached summer-of-2021 levels, but the shoulder injuries suffered by Musgrove and Michael Wacha have exposed the kind of iffy rotation depth that can ultimately sink a flailing team. In the seven combined starts missed by Wacha and Musgrove since the All-Star break, their replacements have combined for 26 innings and a 5.88 ERA. The Padres lost each of the last three of those games.

The Padres seem to have found something in Pedro Avila, who has a 0.98 ERA in five appearances, including one spot start. But having the 26-year-old take Hill’s place in the starting rotation would weaken a similarly iffy bullpen that has needed Avila’s ability to provide length. (“We’ll see as we go forward,” Melvin said when asked about Avila’s role.)

That iffiness was on display Sunday. After five innings of two-run baseball from Seth Lugo, Melvin went to Martinez, who had not allowed a run in his previous nine innings. Martinez pitched a scoreless sixth, returned for the seventh and hung a 3-2 changeup, his best pitch, that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hit out for a tying, pinch-hit homer. Melvin’s alternatives in that spot included newcomer Scott Barlow, who has struggled, and rookie Tom Cosgrove, who has looked vulnerable of late. Another option, Steven Wilson, has pitched to an 11.57 ERA this month.

PINCH HIT PIÑA POWER!!! 🍍 pic.twitter.com/IPOUqyZYb5

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) August 13, 2023

The early returns from the Padres’ trade deadline have been stomach-turning:

Hill: 6 1/3 IP, 12.79 ERA
Barlow: 5 2/3 IP, 11.12 ERA
Garrett Cooper: 15 PA, .154/.267/.231
Ji Man Choi: 16 PA, .000/.313/.000

Meanwhile, closer Josh Hader, who could have been traded for young talent, has pitched twice since the deadline. In his most recent outing, Tuesday in Seattle, he threw a scoreless final inning in a 2-0 loss.

The Padres have scored one run or none at all in 23 games. Six of those games came immediately after they scored 10 or more runs, with the latest example being Saturday’s shutout defeat.

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That performance, though, overlapped with a start by Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen. Sunday, the Padres were arguably even less impressive despite their first-inning blitz against Pfaadt, who entered with a 7.16 ERA.

“I feel like the way we attacked the guy in the first inning, we should have had him out of the game there pretty early,” said infielder Jake Cronenworth, who finished with a team-high three hits.

So, why didn’t they?

“Couldn’t tell ya,” Cronenworth said. “I think, obviously, that first inning we had a great approach and went up there and attacked him and (then) maybe went on the defensive a little bit. I don’t know. But obviously, he settled in and ended up pitching pretty well.”

Right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.’s surgically repaired left shoulder was wrapped in ice after Sunday’s game. Tatis said the shoulder had been bothering him for almost two weeks, although he downplayed the severity.

“Just overall soreness,” Tatis said. “A lot of baseball.”

Do the Padres feel like their season is slipping away?

“I mean, we just lost,” Tatis said. “Obviously, we lost the series, and I don’t know if it’s slipping away, but it’s not what we should be doing right now.”

“Should we be playing better? Absolutely. Yeah, we should. F— pissed off about it,” Machado said. “But at the end of the day, it’s fricking baseball. I mean, things can happen. And sometimes you win, sometimes you lose and sometimes it’s just how baseball is.”

“You keep getting punched like this, and you keep getting beat down a little bit, sometimes you lose your spirit,” Melvin said. “That’s not an excuse. But we’ve had some really tough games this year that we’ve had to respond to and we keep having to respond to. Tomorrow will be the same thing.”

(Top photo of Fernando Tatis Jr.: Norm Hall / Getty Images)

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